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NFL Confidence Picks v2
Topic Started: Jan 4 2013, 01:18 PM (636 Views)
Tylerdelphia
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WC
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
So, we did this last year and I'm not even going to try and explain it any differently than MSC did last year, since it's spot on:

MSC
 
I'm not sure who all listens to Mike & Mike (are you guys even awake then?), but every year they do something called NFL confidence picks to predict who will win in the playoffs. They take each team that's playing and rank their QB, coach, and defense based on how they think they will do that week.

Here's a brief run down -

For quarterbacks, you might rank Drew Brees a 1 if he were playing a putrid pass defense such as the Packers or Patriots. Tim Tebow might be an 8 since he can't pass in general. You can also look at it from a playoff experience perspective - Brady's been there whereas Stafford is making his first start.

For coaches, you rank them based on how well you think they make decisions that affect the game (timeout usage, play calling, etc.). For instance, you might have pretty high confidence in a proven coach such as Bill Belichick whereas a coach such as Mike Smith (winless in playoffs, play call blunders this year) might not give you as much confidence.

Defense should be pretty self-explanatory. You look at the offense they are playing and rank them based on how they might perform.

At the end, you tally up the scores for each team and the team with the lowest score wins.

Here is a link to Mike & Mike's confidence picks from 2011 (2012 was released this morning and isn't available on the website yet). It might help explain where I've not.


Here are your matchups for this weekend's wildcard round:

NFL WILD CARD ROUND

QBs

Andy Dalton @ Matt Schaub
Andrew Luck @ Joe Flacco
Christian Ponder @ Aaron Rodgers
Russell Wilson @ Robert Griffin III

Coaches

Marvin Lewis @ Gary Kubiak
Chuck Pagano @ John Harbaugh
Leslie Frazier @ Mike McCarthy
Pete Carroll @ Mike Shanahan


Defenses

Bengals @ Texans
Colts @ Ravens
Vikings @ Packers
Seahawks @ Redskins
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Tylerdelphia
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WC
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
QBs

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Robert Griffin III
3. Andy Dalton
4. Russell Wilson
5. Joe Flacco
6. Andrew Luck
7. Matt Schaub
8. Christian Ponder

Coaches

1. John Harbaugh
2. Mike McCarthy
3. Mike Shanahan
4. Pete Carroll
5. Marvin Lewis
6. Chuck Pagano
7. Gary Kubiak
8. Leslie Frazier

Defenses

1. Seahawks
2. Ravens
3. Texans
4. Bengals
5. Packers
6. Redskins
7. Vikings
8. Colts

FINAL PICKS

BENGALS (12) over TEXANS (17)
RAVENS (8) over COLTS (20)
PACKERS (8) over VIKINGS (23)
SEAHAWKS (9) over REDSKINS (11)

Overall Confidence:

1t. Packers (8)
1t. Ravens (8)
3. Seahawks (9)
4. Redskins (11)
5. Bengals (12)
6. Texans (17)
7. Colts (20)
8. Vikings (23)
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Dubb
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That's what she said
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
QBs
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. RG3
3. Russell Wilson
4. Andrew Luck
5. Andy Dalton
6. Joe Flacco
7. Matt Schaub
8. Christian Ponder

Coaches
1. Mike McCarthy
2. John Harbaugh
3. Pete Carroll
4. Mike Shanahan
5. Gary Kubiak
6. Chuck Pagano
7. Marvin Lewis
8. Leslie Frazier

Defenses
1. Seahawks
2. Texans
3. Ravens
4. Packers
5. Bengals
6. Vikings
7. Colts
8. Redskins

FINAL
TEXANS (14) over BENGALS (17)
RAVENS (11) over COLTS (17)
PACKERS (6) over VIKINGS (22)
SEAHAWKS (7) over REDSKINS (15)


Overall Confidence
1. Packers (6)
2. Seahawks (7)
3. Ravens (11)
4. Texans (14)
5. Redskins (15)
6. Bengals (17)
7. Colts (17)
8. Vikings (22)
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MSC
Not an admin.
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
QBs
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Matt Schaub
3. Andy Dalton
4. RG3
5. Russell Wilson
6. Andrew Luck
7. Joe Flacco
8. Christian Ponder

Coaches
1. Mike McCarthy
2. John Harbaugh
3. Mike Shanahan
4. Marvin Lewis
5. Pete Carroll
6. Chuck Pagano
7. Gary Kubiak
8. Leslie Frazier

Defenses
1. Seahawks
2. Ravens
3. Bengals
4. Texans
5. Redskins
6. Colts
7. Packers
8. Vikings

FINAL PICKS

BENGALS (10) over TEXANS (13)
RAVENS (11) over COLTS (18)
PACKERS (9) over VIKINGS (24)
SEAHAWKS (11) over REDSKINS (12)

Overall Confidence:
1. Packers (9)
2. Bengals (10)
3t. Ravens (11)
3t. Seahawks (11)
5. Redskins (12)
6. Texans (13)
7. Colts (18)
8. Vikings (24)
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Trust the Process
Member Avatar
Draft King
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
QBs

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Robert Griffin III
3. Russell Wilson
4. Andrew Luck
5. Joe Flacco
6. Matt Schaub
7. Andy Dalton
8. Christian Ponder

Coaches

1. Mike Shanahan
2. Mike McCarthy
3. Pete Carroll
4. John Harbaugh
5. Chuck Pagano
6. Marvin Lewis
7. Gary Kubiak
8. Leslie Frazier

Defenses

1. Seahawks
2. Texans
3. Ravens
4. Redskins
5. Bengals
6. Vikings
7. Colts
8. Packers

FINAL PICKS

TEXANS (15) over BENGALS (18)
RAVENS (12) over COLTS (17)
PACKERS (10) over VIKINGS (20)
REDSKINS (7) over SEAHAWKS (7) - TIE TO THE HOME TEAM

Overall Confidence:

1. Seahawks (7)
2. Redskins (7)
3. Packers (10)
4. Ravens (12)
5. Texans (15)
6. Colts (17)
7. Bengals (18)
8. Vikings (20)
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morronmaster
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5 Time Champ
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
QBs
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Russell Wilson
3. Andrew Luck
4. Andy Dalton
5. RG3
6. Matt Schaub
7. Joe Flacco
8. Christian Ponder

Coaches
1. Mike McCarthy
2. Pete Carroll
3. John Harbaugh
4. Mike Shanahan
5. Chuck Pagano
6. Gary Kubiak
7. Marvin Lewis
8. Leslie Frazier

Defenses
1. Seahawks
2. Texans
3. Ravens
4. Bengals
5. Redskins
6. Packers
7. Colts
8. Vikings

Final Picks
TEXANS (14) over Bengals(15)
RAVENS (13) over COLTS (15)
PACKERS (8) over VIKINGS (24)
SEAHAWKS (5) over REDSKINS (14)

Overall
1. SEAHAWKS (5)
2. PACKERS (8)
3. RAVENS (13)
4. TEXANS (14)
5. REDSKINS (14)
6. Bengals(15)
7. COLTS (15)
8. VIKINGS (24)
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Devonta
Member Avatar
The Greatest
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
QBs

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Robert Griffin III
3. Matt Schaub
4. Russell Wilson
5. Joe Flacco
6. Andrew Luck
7. Andy Dalton
8. Christian Ponder

Coaches

1. John Harbaugh (Ravens)
2. Mike McCarthy (Packers)
3. Mike Shanahan (Redskins)
4. Gary Kubiak (Texans)
5. Marvin Lewis (Bengals)
6. Chuck Pagano (Colts)
7. Pete Carroll (Seahawks)
8. Leslie Frazier (Vikings)

Defenses

1. Seahawks
2. Texans
3. Ravens
4. Packers
5. Bengals
6. Redskins
7. Vikings
8. Colts

FINAL PICKS

TEXANS(7) over BENGALS(12)
RAVENS (8) over COLTS (15)
PACKERS (8) over VIKINGS (20)
REDSKINS (6) over SEAHAWKS (14)

Overall Confidence:

1. Redskins(6)
2.Texans (7)
3t. Packers (8)
3t. Ravens (8)
5.Bengals (12)
6. Seahawks (14)
7. Colts (15)
8. Vikings (20)
Edited by Devonta, Jan 4 2013, 04:30 PM.
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Mofoticon
EBL Commissioner
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
QBs

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Robert Griffin III
3. Russell Wilson
4. Andrew Luck
5. Matt Schaub
6. Joe Flacco
7. Andy Dalton
8. Christian Ponder

Coaches

1. Mike McCarthy
2. Mike Shanahan
3. John Harbaugh
4. Leslie Frazier
5. Pete Carroll
6. Marvin Lewis
7. Chuck Pagano
8. Gary Kubiak

Defenses

1. Houston Texans
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Washington Redskins
6. Minnesota Vikings
7. Cincinnati Bengals
8. Indianapolis Colts

Texans (14) over Bengals (20)

Ravens (13) over Colts (19)

Packers (5) over Vikings (18)

Redskins (9) over Seahawks (10)

Overall

1. Packers (5)
2. Redskins (9)
3. Seahawks (10)
4. Ravens (13)
5. Texans (14)
6. Vikings (18)
7. Colts (19)
8. Bengals (20)
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Ron
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SIXAHS
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
QBs
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Andrew Luck
3. RGIII
4. Russell Wilson
5. Andy Dalton
6. Joe Flacco
7. Matt Schaub
8. Christian Ponder

Coaches
1. Mike McCarthy
2. Mike Shanahan
3. John Harbaugh
4. Chuck Pagano
5. Pete Carroll
6. Marvin Lewis
7. Leslie Frazier
8. Gary Kubiak

Defenses
1. Seahawks
2. Colts
3. Ravens
4. Bengals
5. Texans
6. Redskins
7. Packers
8. Vikings

Bengals (16) over Texans (20)
Packers (9) over Vikings (23)
Colts (8) over Ravens (12)
Seahawks (10) over Redskins (11)

Overall Confidence
1. Colts - 8
2. Packers - 9
3. Seahawks - 10
4. Redskins - 11
5. Ravens - 12
6. Bengals - 16
7. Texans - 20
8. Vikings - 23

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Mofoticon
EBL Commissioner
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Devonta 2 Is A Charm
Jan 4 2013, 04:30 PM
QBs

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Robert Griffin III
3. Matt Schaub
4. Russell Wilson
5. Joe Flacco
6. Andrew Luck
7. Andy Dalton
8. Christian Ponder

Coaches

1. John Harbaugh (Ravens)
2. Mike McCarthy (Packers)
3. Mike Shanahan (Redskins)
4. Gary Kubiak (Texans)
5. Marvin Lewis (Bengals)
6. Chuck Pagano (Colts)
7. Pete Carroll (Seahawks)
8. Leslie Frazier (Vikings)

Defenses

1. Seahawks
2. Texans
3. Ravens
4. Packers
5. Bengals
6. Redskins
7. Vikings
8. Colts

FINAL PICKS

TEXANS(7) over BENGALS(12)
RAVENS (8) over COLTS (15)
PACKERS (8) over VIKINGS (20)
REDSKINS (6) over SEAHAWKS (14)

Overall Confidence:

1. Redskins(6)
2.Texans (7)
3t. Packers (8)
3t. Ravens (8)
5.Bengals (12)
6. Seahawks (14)
7. Colts (15)
8. Vikings (20)
you had to have not understood how to do this, because every single one of your sum totals is wrong based on your rankings.
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JerryArr
Member Avatar
Vancouver Suns GM
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
QBs

1. Rodgers
2. Wilson
3. Griffin
4. Schaub
5. Flacco
6. Dalton
7. Luck
8. Ponder

Coaches

1. Harbaugh
2. Pagano
3. Carroll
4. Lewis
5. Frazier
6. McCarthy
7. Shanahan
8. Kubiak

Defenses

1. Seahawks
2. Texans
3. Bengals
4. Vikings
5. Redskins
6. Packers
7. Ravens
8. Colts


Bengals (13) @ Texans (14), Bengals win
Colts (17) @ Ravens (13), Ravens win
Vikings (17) @ Packers (13), Packers win
Seahawks (6) @ Redskins (15), Seahawks win

Totals
1st: Seahawks (6)
2nd: Packers (13, home)
2nd: Ravens (13, home)
4rd: Bengals (13, away)
5th: Texans (14)
6th: Redskins (15)
7th: Colts (17)
7th: Vikings (17)
Edited by JerryArr, Jan 5 2013, 02:42 PM.
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Hajjhowe
Halfcourt Heroes
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
QB:
Aaron Rodgers
Russell Wilson
Joe Flacco
Christian Ponder
Andy Dalton
Robert Griffin III
Matt Schaub
Andrew Luck

Coach:
Mike McCarthy
John Harbaugh
Gary Kubiak
Mike Shanahan
Marvin Lewis
Chuck Pagano
Pete Carroll
Leslie Frazier

Defense:
Bengals
Ravens
Seahawks
Texans
Vikings
Packers
Colts
Redskins

Finals Results:
Bengals 11 @ Texans 14
Colts 21 @ Ravens 7
Vikings 17 @ Packers 8
Seahawks 12 @ Redskins 18

Ranks:
Ravens
Packers
Bengals
Seahawks
Texans
Vikings
Redskins
Colts
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Baldwin
Member Avatar
6x EBL Champion
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
I think I did this right...

Quarterbacks
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Russell Wilson
3. RG3
4. Matt Schaub
5. Andrew Luck
6. Joe Flacco
7. Andy Dalton
8. Christian Ponder

Coaches
1. Pete Carroll
2. Mike McCarthy
3. Mike Shanahan
4. John Harbaugh
5. Gary Kubiak
6. Marvin Lewis
7. Chuck Pagano
8. Leslie Frazier

Defenses
1. Ravens
2. Seahawks
3. Redskins
4. Texans
5. Packers
6. Bengals
7. Colts
8. Vikings

Final Picks
TEXANS (13) over BENGALS (19)
RAVENS (11) over COLTS (19)
PACKERS (8) over VIKINGS (24)
SEAHAWKS (5) over REDSKINS (9)

Overall
1. SEAHAWKS (5)
2. PACKERS (8)
3. REDSKINS (9)
4. RAVENS (11)
5. TEXANS (13)
6. BENGALS (19)
7. COLTS (19)
8. VIKINGS (24)
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Baldwin
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6x EBL Champion
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Seeing Joe Webb may start instead of Ponder. FYI, this does absolutely nothing to affect my rankings...
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Mofoticon
EBL Commissioner
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it makes me think minnesota has a little more of a shot now
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